03 août 2011

House passes debt ceiling agreement (text below from CNN)

Barack Obama
By Alan Silverleib and Tom Cohen, CNN    
August 1, 2011 -- Updated 2313 GMT (0713 HKT)

Washington (CNN) -- The U.S. House on Monday passed the debt-ceiling deal worked out by President Barack Obama and congressional leaders, sending it to the Senate for consideration a day before the deadline for the government to face possible default.
A Senate vote was expected Tuesday, according to multiple Senate leadership aides from each party.
The agreement reached Sunday by President Barack Obama and congressional leaders from both parties calls for up to $2.4 trillion in savings over the next decade, raises the debt ceiling through the end of 2012 and establishes a special congressional committee to recommend long-term fiscal reforms.
The legislation needs to reach Obama's desk by Tuesday at the latest. If the current $14.3 trillion debt limit is not increased by that point, Americans could face rapidly rising interest rates, a falling dollar and shakier financial markets, among other problems.
By a 269-161 vote, the House overcame opposition from liberal Democrats and tea party conservatives for ideologically different reasons.
A number of Republicans worried about cuts in defense spending and the lack of a required balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution. Progressive Democrats were livid over the extent of the deal's domestic spending cuts, as well as the absence of any immediate tax hikes on wealthier Americans.
House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, was able to round up the support of most of his GOP caucus, while the chamber's two top Democrats -- Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer of Maryland -- voted for the plan along with more than 90 of their caucus members.
Still, emotions ran high after months of grueling negotiations that pitted the small-government, anti-tax ideology of conservative Republicans against Obama's call for balancing spending cuts and entitlement reforms with increased tax revenue to spread the pain of necessary deficit reduction steps.
This "may be the single worst piece of public policy to ever come out of this institution," declared liberal Rep. Maxine Waters, D-California, while Pelosi noted the measure "makes these big cuts and has ... not one red cent from the wealthiest people in our country -- no revenue."
At one point, more than a dozen protesters caused a disturbance in the House gallery by chanting against Speaker John Boehner until Capitol Police officers removed them.
Vice President Joe Biden spent much of Monday on Capitol Hill, trying to persuade unhappy Democrats to back the proposal.
"I am confident that this will pass," Biden asserted. "We have to get this out of the way" in order to turn Washington's focus to job growth, he said.
Boehner and other House leaders said the deal would start reshaping how Washington spends taxpayer money, which was the goal of conservatives who elected Republicans to a majority in the House last November.
"The bill is not perfect ... but changing the way that Washington spends tax payers dollars is often a lot like redirecting or turning an aircraft carrier." said House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Virginia. "It's a monumental task."
Boehner acknowledged that Republicans on the Armed Services Committee were concerned about cuts to military spending in the agreement, but he told reporters he believed they would support the proposal.
"As I told them, this is the best defense number we're going to get, and frankly if we don't pass the bill, it's pretty clear to me what'll happen ... the defense number will go down," Boehner said.
The agreement revolves around a two-stage process.
The first stage includes $917 billion in savings, including a roughly $420 billion reduction in the national security budget. The cuts would be accompanied by a $900 billion increase in the debt ceiling.
Because of the pending Tuesday deadline, Obama would have immediate authority to raise the debt ceiling by $400 billion, which will last through September, according to the White House.
The other $500 billion increase in the debt limit would be subject to a congressional vote of disapproval that can be vetoed by Obama.
In the second stage, a special joint committee of Congress would recommend further deficit reduction steps totaling $1.5 trillion or more, with Congress obligated to vote on the panel's proposals by the end of the year.
The committee would comprise 12 members: Six from each chamber, equally divided between Democrats and Republicans. The panel's recommendations would be due by November 23 and guaranteed an up-or-down vote without amendments by December 23.
The committee is expected to consider politically sensitive reforms to the tax code and entitlement programs, though Democrats and Republicans disagree on the likelihood of any eventual revenue increases.
If the committee's recommendations are enacted, Obama would be authorized to increase the debt ceiling by up to $1.5 trillion. If the recommendations are not enacted, Obama can still raise the debt ceiling by $1.2 trillion. At that point, however, a budget "trigger" would kick in, imposing mandatory across-the-board spending cuts matching the size of the debt ceiling increase.
The cuts would be split between defense spending and non-defense programs, an unpopular formula intended to motivate legislators to approve the committee's recommendations.
"You want to make it hard for (lawmakers) just to walk away and wash their hands," Gene Sperling, the director of Obama's National Economic Council, said Sunday. "You want them to say, if nothing happens, there will be a very tough degree of pain that will take place."
The final debt ceiling increase in the agreement would also be subject to a congressional vote of disapproval that can be vetoed by Obama.
The agreement calls for both houses of Congress to vote on a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, though it does not make a further increase in the debt limit subject to congressional passage of such an amendment -- something tea party conservatives were initially demanding.
In a key concession to Democrats, benefits from entitlements including Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare -- as well as veteran's benefits -- will be exempt from any immediate cuts.
Leaders on both sides of the aisle have conceded that the deal is far from perfect.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, emphasized that "no one got what they want" and "everyone had to give something up."
But this "is a great stride forward" that shows "we can succeed not in spite of our divided government but because of it," he said.
A recent CNN/ORC International Poll reveals a growing public exasperation and demand for compromise. Sixty-four percent of respondents to a July 18-20 survey preferred a deal with a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. Only 34% preferred a debt reduction plan based solely on spending reductions.
According to the poll, the public is sharply divided along partisan lines; Democrats and independents are open to a number of different approaches because they think a failure to raise the debt ceiling would cause a major crisis for the country. Republicans, however, draw the line at tax increases, and a narrow majority of them oppose raising the debt ceiling under any circumstances.

02 août 2011

Chronique du 18 au 31 Juillet 2011

Jean-François Copé
Ma chronique commence par une bonne nouvelle. Il en faut. Alors que la loi Zimmermann-Copé fixait le seuil d'attribution des sièges d'administrateurs des sociétés du CAC 40 à 20% d'ici 2014, il semblerait qu'il soit d'ores et déjà franchi !
Publicis et Vallourec seraient par ailleurs les meilleurs élèves de la classe en ayant passé les 40% par exemple par la première. Ces grands noms français sont donc en avance, très au-dessus de la moyenne nationale. 
40% au minimum reste la cible pour 2017. Il y a encore du chemin à accomplir
Certes, l'euro se porte comme un charme, mais il est trop fort. Beaucoup trop fort et nous sommes nombreux à souhaiter sa baisse, surtout les économistes qui le voient comme un danger pour nos économies. Il pousse les délocalisations dans la zone dollar et empêche des pays traditionnellement exportateurs comme la France ou l'Italie de bénéficier d'un niveau d'activité supplémentaire, d'une manne providentielle. Une manne dont ces pays auraient bien besoin pour soulager leur endettement respectif. La croissance, ainsi freinée, handicape nos entreprises. Aucun doute là-dessus. La dévaluation aurait été possible en d'autres temps et aurait été une bonne solution. Elle est aujourd'hui techniquement et politiquement impossible. Il faut trouver d'autres solutions. Que faire ? 
Une sortie de l'Allemagne de la zone euro en serait une. Mais contrairement à une idée reçue, l'Allemagne, aussi forte soit-elle, n'a pas intérêt à un tel mouvement. Cela nuirait gravement à son moteur économique. 
L'autre solution est de voir le dollar remonter ! Bien sûr. Si l'euro ne baisse pas, faisons remonter le dollar. Simple ! Mais là encore peu de chance de voir ceci arriver avant les élections américaines. Le président Barack Obama ne prendrait pas ce risque. Lorsque l'on voit les difficultés rencontrées outre-atlantique pour éviter un défaut de paiement historique de la première puissance mondiale, on se dit que quelque chose ne tourne pas rond en ce moment (voir mon dernier billet sur le sujet). Nous verrons bien.
France Telecom lance SOSH
Pour faire face à ce type de situation, certaines entreprises n'hésitent pas à réagir et à se préparer aux temps difficiles. Ainsi, prévoyant une situation concurrentiel renforcée avec l'arrivée de Free sur le marché des mobiles, France Telecom, par la voie de son président Stéphane Richard, annonce son entrée dans le marché du "Low-cost" (marque "Sosh"). 
C'est une réaction à ce que nous vivons. Il faut bien trouver les moyens de sauvegarder la croissance et à terme l'emploi. Il faut résister, être résilient. Nous en avons déjà parlé. Je suis persuadé que c'est une étape importante pour l'opérateur français. Il prend position et montre qu'il peut réagir vite et fort. 
Pour rester sur les entreprises françaises, celles qui marchent bien et qui affichent une bonne santé, notons celle du groupe EDF. Henri Progio, PDG, annonçait il y a peu de bons résultats pour le premier semestre 2011. Un EBITDA en progression de 6,2%, un chiffre d'affaires en croissance de 2,7% et un résultat net récurrent (toujours important) en hausse de 12,5% ! 
Ces résultats sont en particulier liés à la bonne tenue du nucléaire, ce qui a permis au président d'affirmer le leadership du groupe, véritable chef de file, de confirmer une stratégie de diversification des énergies, et la volonté évidente de ne jamais faire passer les résultats avant la sécurité des citoyens. L'industrie française avait passé la crise en 2008/2009 avec brio. Elle montre une nouvelle fois de belles potentialités, de belles réserves. Les fleurons se portent bien, c'est une bonne nouvelle pour notre futur à tous. 
La technologie dans ces environnements joue un rôle considérable et va donner des ailes aux acteurs du marché français. Rappelons le lancement par HP de la tablette TouchPad et de WebOS qui vont apporter un bout en bout technologique salutaire.

Prochaine chronique exceptionnellement fin Août. En attendant, je vous souhaite à tous de très bonnes vacances ! 

01 août 2011

Reid says he has signed onto a debt ceiling deal (text below from CNN)

Barack Obama
President of the
United States of America
By Alan Silverleib and Tom Cohen, CNN
cnn.com
July 31, 2011 5:55 p.m. EDT


Washington (CNN) -- Two days before the deadline for a possible U.S. government default, President Barack Obama and congressional leaders reached agreement Sunday on a legislative package that would extend the federal debt ceiling while cutting spending and guaranteeing further deficit-reduction steps.
The proposed deal, which still requires congressional approval, brought some immediate relief to global markets closely watching the situation play out and to a nation filled with anger and frustration over partisan political wrangling that threatened further economic harm to an already struggling recovery.
However, there is no guarantee the plan will win enough support to pass both chambers of Congress.
"There are still some very important votes to be taken by members of Congress, but I want to announce that the leaders of both parties in both chambers have reached an agreement that will reduce the deficit and avoid default," Obama said in brief remarks to reporters.
Asian markets surge on news | U.S. futures rally
Democratic and Republican leaders in both the House and Senate were briefing their caucuses about the agreement on Sunday night and Monday. A Senate Democratic leadership aide told CNN that the Senate planned to vote first on the measure on Monday afternoon, and if the measure passes an expected Republican filibuster attempt, the House could vote on it Monday night.
Not all satisfied with debt deal Senator threatens to filibuster Who will vote for debt deal? Debt resolution a done deal?
According to information from the White House and a PowerPoint presentation for his colleagues by House Speaker John Boehner, the proposed deal includes $2.4 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years while authorizing an increase in the federal debt ceiling by a slightly smaller amount to allow the government to pay its debts through 2012.
The agreement proposes a two-stage process.
In the first stage, it includes $917 billion in spending cuts and other deficit reduction now, as well as a $900 billion increase in the debt ceiling.
Because of the pending Tuesday deadline, Obama would have immediate authority to raise the debt ceiling by $400 billion, which will last through September, according to the White House document. For the other $500 billion of debt ceiling extension in the first stage, Congress can vote on resolutions of disapproval that, if passed, the president can then veto, the White House said.
In the second stage, a special joint committee of Congress will recommend further deficit reduction steps totaling $1.5 trillion or more by the end of November, with Congress obligated to vote on the panel's proposals by the end of the year.
If the recommendations are enacted, Obama would be authorized to increase the debt ceiling by up to $1.5 trillion -- as long as the additional deficit reduction steps exceed that amount. The president also can get the additional debt ceiling increase if both chambers of Congress pass a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution in votes to be held by the end of the year.
However, Obama would be able to request only up to $1.2 trillion in additional debt ceiling if the special congressional committee fails to agree to at least $1.2 trillion in cuts.
At that point, across-the-board spending cuts would be activated, equal to the difference between the committee's recommendations and the $1.2 trillion in additional debt ceiling. The across-the-board cuts would be split between defense spending and non-defense programs, an unpopular formula intended to inspire legislators to approve the special committee's recommendations instead of triggering such automatic cuts.
In addition, the across-the-board cuts are automatically enacted if Congress fails to pass the special committee's recommendations.
Debt fight shows tea party's influence - so far
"You want to make it hard for them just to walk away and wash their hands," Gene Sperling, the director of Obama's National Economic Council, told CNN earlier Sunday. "You want them to say, if nothing happens, there will be a very tough degree of pain that will take place."
The White House document said the debt ceiling increase of the second stage also would be subject to a congressional vote of disapproval that can be vetoed.
It said the special congressional committee would comprise 12 members -- six from each chamber, equally divided between Democrats and Republicans. The panel's recommendations would be due by November 23 and guaranteed an up-or-down Senate vote without amendments by December 23, the White House document said.
In an important concession to Democrats, benefits from entitlement programs including Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare and veterans benefits will be exempt.
"Is this the deal I would have preferred? No," Obama said. "I believe that we could have made the tough choices required -- on entitlement reform and tax reform -- right now, rather than through a special congressional committee process. But this compromise does make a serious down payment on the deficit reduction we need, and gives each party a strong incentive to get a balanced plan done before the end of the year."
Boehner also told his caucus the deal represents a compromise, but he also praised his colleagues for moving the focus of the talks in their direction.
"This isn't the greatest deal in the world," Boehner said, according to excerpts of remarks to his caucus. "But it shows how much we've changed the terms of the debate in this town."
Minutes before Obama spoke, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, also announced the deal on the Senate floor and encouraged colleagues to support it.
However, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-California, earlier told reporters that she needs to see "the final product" in writing before she can decide if she supports it.
Pelosi said she would meet with the House Democratic caucus on Monday to discuss the matter.
"I don't know all the particulars of what the final product is in writing and what the ramifications will be," Pelosi said, noting the measure will have an impact for a decade or more. Asked about the outcome, she warned: "We all may not be able to support it or none of us may be able to support it."
If Congress fails to raise the current $14.3 trillion debt ceiling by Tuesday, Americans could face rising interest rates and a declining dollar, among other problems.
Some financial experts have warned of a downgrade of America's triple-A credit rating and a potential stock market plunge. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped for a sixth straight day on Friday.
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Without an increase in the debt limit, the federal government will not be able to pay all its bills in August. President Barack Obama recently indicated he can't guarantee Social Security checks will be mailed out on time.
In Afghanistan on Sunday, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen was unable to assure U.S. troops they would get their paychecks following the Tuesday deadline without a deal. Mullen said August 15 would be the first payday jeopardized if the United States defaults.
Last week, a Department of Defense official told CNN on condition of not being identified that "it's not a question of whether, but when" military pay gets withheld if no agreement is reached.
Sources described a tense day of behind-the-scenes negotiating, with Vice President Joe Biden a prominent figure, one Democratic source told CNN on condition of not being identified.
Initial news of a possible deal came shortly after the Senate delayed consideration of a debt ceiling proposal by Reid late Saturday night, pushing back a key procedural vote by 12 hours. When that vote occurred on Sunday afternoon, Republicans blocked a Democratic effort to end debate on the Reid proposal and move to a vote, extending consideration of the plan while negotiations continued.
Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer of New York told CNN on Sunday morning that a main sticking point still under discussion was the trigger mechanism of automatic spending cuts in case Congress fails to enact the special committee's recommendations.
The deal includes no tax increases, a key demand of Republicans. Obama has pushed for a comprehensive approach that would include additional tax revenue as well as spending cuts and entitlement reforms to reduce budget deficits, and he told reporters he would continue to do so in coming months as the special committee drafts its recommendations.
A recent CNN/ORC International Poll reveals a growing public exasperation and demand for compromise. Sixty-four percent of respondents to a July 18-20 survey preferred a deal with a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. Only 34% preferred a debt reduction plan based solely on spending reductions.
According to the poll, the public is sharply divided along partisan lines; Democrats and independents are open to a number of different approaches because they think a failure to raise the debt ceiling would cause a major crisis for the country. Republicans, however, draw the line at tax increases, and a narrow majority of them oppose raising the debt ceiling under any circumstances.

CNN's Ted Barrett, Kate Bolduan, Gloria Borger, Keating Holland, Brianna Keilar, Jeanne Sahadi, Xuan Thai, Jessica Yellin, Athena Jones, Lisa Desjardins, Dan Lothian and Deirdre Walsh contributed to this report.